Background
The growing of China’s economy and military power in the recent decades argued by many experts as gradually will change the international power configuration, especially in Asia (White, 2011, and East Asia Forum, 2010, p-15). The more powerful and prosperous China, alongside the declining of the US power, is likely will change the surrounding countries engagement on political, economic and military relation with China. Situated in the close region, Indonesia and Australia will also be impacted by this geostrategic implication. Coincidentally interesting, the three countries will be presented in this essay represents three civilization in Huntington’s writing (1996), that are Confucius, Islam and Western civilization.
Following the Huntington’s theory of the clash of civilizations to remark the new world order, however, the reality on the ground was changing. The United States domination is likely decreasing, refers to the unsuccessful story of Afghanistan and Iraq war. This process occurred alongside with deterioration of the US economy due to the huge budget deficit and global financial crisis. As the new great power, China will likely be accepted as new reality in Asia alongside with the flooding of their manufacture products in the international market. The China’s economic growth is predicted will surpasses the United States as the largest economy in the world in 2020 based on The Australian Government’s Defence White Paper (East Asia Forum, 2010, p-15) after reaching double digit of growth for many years.
The nuclear power and member of the Security Council in the United Nations is not only got benefit from economic globalization process through WTO, AFTA and APEC for instance, but also tries to engage more political gain such as through Six-Party Talks in the case of North Korea (Drysdale, 2010, p-11). China’s naval modernization is viewed by other countries as a potential challenge to regional stability as presented by The Australian Government’s Defence White Paper. China’s military power, however, could be a political deterent force for some issues, such as South China Sea border conflict, China’s internal separatism or one China policy. Indonesia and Australia response to this development coming from their interests will be presented in this essay. The following explanation, however, will be more focus on political and economic relationship rather than military.
Underlying theory on China’s foreign relation
Along three thousand years of its history, China is undisputable a great power in the world (Haw, 2002, p-57). China has major historical importance, likewise the most populous with 1.3 billion people and the fourth largest country in the world (CIA, August 2011). As the new emerging economy and politics, China is trying to enhance its relations with any countries in the world to get more political and economic benefit, besides maintaining the recent achievement. Except on “one China policy”, China foreign relation is different with western style foreign relation that coming from its eastern culture and values. China almost never uses political conditionality in their international cooperation as a means to pressure their counterpart, alongside “win-win solution” on its international economic cooperation.
Current China’s foreign policy is almost never relying on its hard power, but soft power. The three soft power of China as mentioned by Cho and Jeong (2008, p-461) are, firstly their development model, secondly the peaceful development of foreign policy and thirdly China’s high civilization. China’s high economic growth has more becoming a model of development and give new hope for developing countries especially through Beijing consensus 2004. Likewise, China’s economic growth is viewed by surrounding countries as boosting factor for world economic growth. Moreover, China is also becoming the big investor in neighboring countries, including in Africa. Finally, the ancient Chinese culture shaped the Asian value especially the countries influenced.
The ancient China’s value and culture, Confucius, is the root of diplomatic principles like “live peacefully with neighbor, bring prosperity to them, and provide safety to them”. Harmonious world is the objective of China’s foreign policy that derived from this ancient value. To support the efforts to spread its soft power, China’s government established Confucius institute around the world alongside establishing many centers to promote China’s culture and language. Faced by Indonesia’s Islamic values or Australian western values, China try to use its ancient values combined with socialist values in its diplomacy (Cho and Jeong, 2008, p-) to shape the new balance (order) in international relation.
White (2010, p-14) stated that international order is, “the set of understandings and expectations that shape relationships between states”. The condition is formed because of the perceptions and the changes of realities in the ground that result in the changes on international relation, the relative power amongst countries. Furthermore, White (2010) argued that after the cold war era, economic power becoming the new key driver of geostrategic relation among countries, not merely military power. The position of China as investor of the US Treasury bonds while the superpower country experiencing significant budget deficit is likely confirms the previous theory. The other confirmation is coming from the Euro zone when European countries try to get help from China to solve their currency problem (Aljazeera, 2011). China is also increasingly more important within the G-20 in managing global economic system and currency stability.
In response to the rising China, surrounding countries in Asia and Pacific is facing dilemma between getting economic benefit from China or security gain from the US military power. These countries try to get the best combination of balancing and bandwagoning with China (Chung, 2010, p-657). Balancing is the challenging response through any alliance formation with the US because coming from the perception of China as a threat. On the other hand, bandwagoning is trying to get benefit or profit sharing with the rising power (China). The third position, however, is “hedgers” or in the middle between balancing and bandwagoning. Having different geostrategy and coming from different political background, in many issues Australia and Indonesia has different position in relation with rising China.
Australia for almost six decades has ANZUS treaty, the close security ally with the United States and New Zealand to express its balancing position toward China. This position is similar with Japan, South Korea or Taiwan that formed because of the past history. Indonesia on the other position is formally non-alignment country in last the Cold War Era. In the recent development over rising China, Chung (2010, p-667) argued that Indonesia’s position toward China is “persistently ambiguous”. Indonesia experienced military embargo from the US after the East Timor riot following the referendum result in 1999, however, also not very actively engaging to China as the rising military power in Asia. Pambudi and Chandra (2006, p-20) stated that Indonesian military is still suspicious on this communist country, the position that boost Indonesia supported the US presence in ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) to balance China.
Through CNOOC (China National Offshore Oil Company), China is concerning about energy security issue since its economy rely on the supply of energy that the demand is rising significantly in the recent years (Wesley, Michael, 2007, p-46). Hence, China is also concern about security in South East Asia relating the Malacca Strait as their trade and energy vessel route that the US navy presence is so dominating. Furthermore, China has disputed border in South China Sea such as Paracel and Spratly islands that predicted as the rich land of oil and gas (Jaffe, and Medlock, 2005, p-275, Emmers, 2011, p-204). However, China’s naval modernization with huge amount of budget and significant breakthrough viewed by Ji (2011) not only intended to secure its economic and political interests but sometime is also used as deterent factor.
China – Indonesia relation
Indonesia is the largest muslim country in the world embracing democratic system in the recent years. Historically China has close relationship with Indonesia from 13 April 1950 to 30 October 1967 in Soekarno Era. At that time Indonesia has Jakarta – Pnom Phen – Peking (Beijing), the political axis based on left-side ideology (socialism). This relation is collapsed after the Indonesian military can stillborn coup d’etat by Indonesian Communist Party (PKI). After many decades implemented isolation policy, China started to engage with international fora including Indonesia in the late 1980’s. In early 1990 in Soeharto era China and Indonesia agree to normalize their bilateral relations (Pambudi and Chandra 2006, p-19).
Political relation
China want to engage with ASEAN especially Indonesia as the biggest part also for political, economic and security objectives. Through the relationship, China also want reduce the perception of China as a threat (Pambudi and Chandra 2006, p-20). The China-Indonesia bilateral relationship is also intended to get mutual benefit, since both countries has any economic interests and internal conflicts that sometimes become political obstacle in international diplomacy. China has Xinjiang, Tibet, Taiwan and Falun Gong issues, while Indonesia has West Papua problem. Indonesia lost control over East Timor following the referendum in 1999, the problem grew for many years as political obstacle for Indonesia and Australia relationship (MacDougall, 1998, pp. 212-219) including the spreading perception over Australia’s effort to get the bigger portion of oil in Timor Gap (Cleary, 2007).
Indonesia as a muslim majority and the biggest country in ASEAN is getting more important for China, besides its strategic position as gas and coal supplier that being needed by China’s economy. Indonesia also has Chinese minority dominating its economy that becoming problematic in such occasion especially in period when the central government is weak. Political and security instability because of Asian economic crisis in 1998 caused riot who many Chinese ethnic minority suppressed by other local ethnic population. However, the China government concerns about this Chinese minority abroad as part of objectives of its naval projection and military modernization.
Economic relation
In economic point of view, both Indonesia and China is big market. Indonesia is the huge market for China with 230 million populations, whilst Indonesia also views the similar perspective about 1.2 billion of China population. As the important part of ASEAN, Indonesia support ASEAN – China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) to get economic benefit. Since normalization of bilateral relation, the trade of China and Indonesia is increase significantly. Indonesia’s export to China was increase by 232.20 per cent between 2003 and 2004, whilst import from China increased by 38.67 per cent in the same period (Pambudi and Chandra 2006, p-26). Furthermore, the volume of trade between two countries in 2004 reached US$ 13.48 billion, the similar amount of trade value between Indonesia and the US. Moreover, the trend is predicted by Indonesian Chamber of Commerce (KADIN) is steady rise in the future.
China - Indonesia economic relation is stronger in the recent years after normalization of bilateral relation in 1990. Indonesia is becoming the 17th major export destination for China, with the value amount of US $ 3.59 billion in 2006. Moreover, the cumulative number of China’s investment in Indonesia is about 282 billion in the same year. China was also investing more in Indonesia such as in infrastructure like built bridge in East Java province and toll road in South Sulawesi province. Indonesia is the major supplier of energy coming from coal and gas extraction to China for many years. However, as the two countries have the similar manufacture product such as textile, toy and motorcycle, sometimes both countries viewed each other as potential economic threat (Pambudi and Chandra 2006, p-32). Indonesian policy maker, however, pragmatically views the aggregate benefit from ASEAN – China Free Trade Area is much higher than its loss in the combining market of around 1.5 billion populations.
China – Australia relation
In the early Australian history, Chinese is the source of labor worked in mining sector such as in Victoria and New South Wales in gold rush era. Their early presence is nearly the same period with the early British colony in Australia. The number of Chinese immigrant, however, is declined along the White Australian Policy Act 1907 and increase after the policy was removed. Australia opened diplomatic relationship with China in 21st December 1972 following any political and military conflicts in Cold War Era alongside the US. Australia is a continent country with long water border, a European majority population that situated near to Asian counties.
Political relation
Australia as a democratic country is balancing power to China, whilst China views Australia as closest Western ally in Asia, the vice sheriff of the US. Australia wants to be dominating power in Pacific following the second World’s War. In the past, Australia alongside the US experienced North Korea and Vietnam war that backed by China. For many years, Australia views China as the threat from the North with huge number of military personnel and military modernization in the recent days. Furthermore, China’s strong cyber attack capability is viewed by Australia as potential challenge to their future security (Babbage, Ross, 2011, pp. 24-25).
As a balancing power toward China, Australia is very concern about human right issues in China especially related to Tibet, Xinjiang and Taiwan. The Australia and China relationship is up and down relying on the ruling power in both countries, especially in Australia. Some Australian prime minister is concern about Australia - China relation such as Paul Keating and Kevin Rudd who want to integrate his country with Asia including China and Indonesia as the big country. In many occasions, however, the bilateral relations was disturbed by the acceptance of separatist leaders such Dalai Lama or Rebiya Kadeer by Australian leaders (Phayul.com, The Australian). In 1989, Australia condemned the Tiananmen massacre that diplomatically retaliated by China through the significantly decreased of wool import from China (Ness in Milner and Quilty, 1998, p-200).
In the context of China as a threat, Australia tried to approach Indonesia as neighboring country in the near north as its ally. Since 1950, Australia help Indonesia to enhanced its capacity building, security cooperation, through any scholarship and education program (Elisabeth, et., al., 2004, pp. 101-121). For decades Australia give international aid to Indonesia, besides to prevent radicalism in this muslim majority country. Australia also built strategic partnership with Indonesia to face China politically and militarily.
Economic relation
Australia intent to maintain its position as the country with highest Human Development Index in the world including through engagement with the China’s fast economic growing. In the recent days, Australia is pragmatically more concern about Asia’s rapid economic grows especially China. Australia and China trade relation is significantly increase from A$ 113 million in 1973 after the establishment of diplomatic relation, becoming A$78.2 billion in 2009 (Australian Embassy in China, 2011). On the other hand, Australia is also important for China since for years as supplier for its coal and mining products (EAAU, 1995).
China is the largest Australia trading partner in 2011 amounted about A$ 105.9 billion (DFAT, 2011). The major Australian export to China is related to iron ore and concentrates, coal, crude petroleum, whilst Australia importing cloth, telecom equipment, computers, toy, games and any sporting goods. Export to China in 2010 is increasing 39.4 per cent compare with the previous year or about 26.4 per cent of all Australian export. Moreover, China is also market for Australian life stock product like wool and other animal hair. China’s investment in Australia is very significant amount of A$ 19.5 billion in 2010.
Australia is the traditional destination for Chinese student since 1970, because the continent country has the high quality of education (Fung and Mackerras in Milner and Quilty, 1998, pp 210-211). The number of China’s student in Australia is rising significantly every year, some of them are becoming Australian citizen. At the moment, Chinese Australia is about 670 thousand (census 2006) of 23 million Australian citizen, the largest ethnic minorities in Australia (Wikipedia, 2011). The China’s student in Australia is also a big market amount of A$ 4.4 billion.
In any degree, Australia and China (also India) economic relation help Australian economy following the global financial crisis 2008, the new reality since the deteriorating condition of the US economy and financial trouble in Euro zone economy. However, critics coming from Australian business community concerning China’s investment in Australia that being perceived by local people will decrease their economy. Moreover, in the climate change/global warming and energy security issues, China is trying to become the leading country in renewable energy in the world, the position that Australia also want to achieve through any policies and research and development.
Concluding remarks
Indonesia and Australia have unique position toward the rising China. The two countries response to China greater power in Asia based on their interests and relative position coming from their political background. However, the response to China’s economic growth is similar; tend to benefiting from the economic growth through trade, investment and any economic cooperation. Despite difference political stance, Australia cannot neglect China as the new economic power in the region, the new reality of the changing world when the US power is declining.
Politically, China and Australia has diametric position in many issues, since coming from the different political culture and background. Australia is the Western ally in Pacific. Indonesia, positioned in the middle of political rivalry between China and Australia. Geographically situated in the middle of China and Australia, Indonesia tends to balancing power of both countries. In this sense militarily Indonesia is a buffer zone for Australia in relation with China in which Australia try to maintain strategic partnership (Elisabeth, et., al., 2004, p-66). Furthermore, Australia gives aid and assistance for Indonesia to secure its position as a good neighbor, prosperous, to combating terrorism and prevent any problems potentially will become a threat for Australia in future.
Finally, the three countries try to get benefit from economic cooperation, whilst in the same time also try to secure its political gain. In the changing recent political reality, Australia will likely be more realistic in its position toward China’s growth. Indonesia in other hand will try to balance both two counties and try to get benefit from any cooperation, economically, militarily, and politically. China on the other side will try to enhance its political benefit from both countries in relation with their prosperity, national integrity (Xinjiang and Tibet) and unification objective (Taiwan).
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Foto: The Economist, factsanddetails.com
Foto: The Economist, factsanddetails.com
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